Newsletter #15 (April 2026)

A MYSTERY RESOLVED…

Dear all, 

Last June, the government announced £790m a year in flood defence funding and called it a record, when the previous one had pledged £866m a year. So that sent me down a journey, which I have now resolved. Read through to know where things stand… 

Things not making sense: 

When the government tells you £790m is bigger than £866m, it’s your responsibility as a campaigner to a) not take their word for it, b) try to understand exactly what is going on, c) denounce it if they really are brazenly telling you that. 

Getting the data: 

I really did do my homework. I asked Defra for all the money they spent on floods for the last five years. I poured through Environment Agency reports. I asked every policy analyst and flood pro I knew. I even made this data book for others to check. 

Going public: 

It still didn't make sense. So I wrote this report and sent it to the Times. The government furiously fought it, and it eventually went to print, but only in digital… And myself and the team settled on the view we were being lied to. 

A new piece of information…

Then, Sanjay was sifting through official papers from a ‘regional flood and coastal committee’. It said that the government had changed its accounting system recently and that this changed categories. The hunt was back on. 

Getting to the table:

In the meantime, I had met some rather serious and competent civil servants at Defra. We exchanged, and this led to a very technical and professional discussion. Honestly, this team is good and deserves credit! 

We were not being lied to: 

This much is true. The government’s announcements have been quite confusing and accounting categories have changed. But as far as I can tell, they were all substantially true or close to true. 

Close to true you say? 

Total spending on flood defences is at record levels when you don’t take into account inflation. It is at near-record levels when you do take inflation into account. I call that a draw. 

What about defences?

We don’t really know, because they changed their accounting system. Total investment in defences (what we call “capital programmes) is plausibly at record levels without taking into account inflation and probably not when we do. 

Building of new flood defences will likely fall because they will be replacing ones that are out of date. 

Is it enough? 

There are plenty of benefit:cost positive schemes out there that aren’t getting funded. So no. But also we just don’t know. Because the recommendations that exist are based on science that is out of date. 

Confused about government announcements no more! 

I’ve plotted the announcements by the years they cover and the budgets they include - the revenue budgets that pay staff and the capital budgets that build assets. 

Next steps: 

I am working to get final approval from the Defra officials that have generously offered their time to talk to me to circulate my report. 

In solidarity, 

Louis